Worst Case Climate Scenarios Being Reallized

The Arctic sea-ice has seen a rapid decline in recent summers. The worst-case scenarios on climate change envisaged by the UN two years ago are already being realised, say scientists at an international meeting. In a statement in Copenhagen on their six key messages to political leaders, they say there is a increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climate shifts. Even modest temperature rises will affect millions of people, particularly in the developing world, they warn. But, they say, most tools needed to cut carbon dioxide emissions already exist.

More than 2,500 researchers and economists attended this meeting designed to update the world on the state of climate research ahead of key political negotiations set for December this year. New data was presented in Copenhagen on sea level rise, which indicated that the best estimates made two years ago were woefully out of date. Scientists heard that waters could rise by over a metre across the world with huge impacts for hundreds of millions of people.
There was also new information on how the Amazon rainforest would cope with rising temperatures. A UK Meteorological Office study concluded there would be a 75% loss of tree cover if the world warmed by three degrees for a century. The scientists hope that their conclusions will remove any excuses from the political process.
"We've seen lots more data, we can see where we are, no new surprises, we have a problem: -Mass migrations"

The meeting was also addressed by Lord Stern, the economist. He now says the report underestimated the scale of the risks, and the speed at which the planet is warming.
He urged scientists to speak out and tell the politicians what the world would be like if effective measures against global warming were not taken. He said that if the world was to warm by 5C over the next century, there would be dramatic consequences for millions of people. Rising seas would make many areas uninhabitable leading to mass migrations and inevitably sparking violent conflict.
Lord Stern: 'The Economics of Climate Change' underestimated the risks
"You'd see hundreds of millions people, probably billions of people who would have to move and we know that would cause conflict, so we would see a very extended period of conflict around the world, decades or centuries as hundreds of millions of people move, " said Lord Stern.
"So I think it's very important that we understand the magnitude of the risk we are running."
He said that a new, effective global deal was desperately needed to avoid these dramatic scenarios - and the current global economic slowdown was in some ways a help.
" It's an opportunity, given that resources will be cheaper now than in the future, now is the time to get the unemployed of Europe working on energy efficiency."

China vows climate change action: - At UN Meeting

China will increase efforts to improve energy efficiency and curb the rise in CO2 emissions, President Hu Jintao has told a UN climate summit in New York. Mr Hu gave no details about the measures, which should mean emissions grow less quickly than the economy.
The US, the world's other major emitter, said China's proposals were helpful but figures were needed. About 100 leaders are attending the talks, ahead of the Copenhagen summit which is due to approve a new treaty.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said failure to agree a treaty in December would be "morally inexcusable". Negotiators for the Copenhagen summit are trying to agree on a replacement for the Kyoto Protocol to limit carbon emissions. Mr Ban called the meeting an attempt to inject momentum into the deadlocked climate talks.
"Your decisions will have momentous consequences," he told the assembled leaders.
"The fate of future generations, and the hopes and livelihoods of billions today, rest, literally, with you," he added.

The Chinese president said his country would curb its carbon emissions per unit of Gross Domestic Product, a measure also known as carbon intensity, by a "notable margin" by 2020 from the 2005 level. However, the proposal is unlikely to mean an overall reduction in emissions, as China's economy is expected to continue to grow rapidly. A US official said that China's proposals were helpful but Beijing needed to provide figures.
"It depends on what the number is," US President Barack Obama's climate change envoy Todd Stern said. But former US vice-president and environmental activist Al Gore praised China's "impressive leadership".
"We've had ... indications that in the event there is dramatic progress in this negotiation, that China will be prepared to do even more," he said.

Analysis: -
Change from Beijing is partly a reaction to international criticism as China becomes the world's biggest polluter. The country's rapid economic growth has created demand for more energy and fuel.There is a growing need for Beijing to provide clear answers on what is being done to deal with the problem.
Image-conscious Chinese officials want to be seen as co-operative internationally and accept that China must become part of the solution to major global issues such as the financial crisis and climate change.

China's climate policy shift
Much of the debate about tackling global warming revolves around the idea of absolute cuts in emissions of carbon dioxide - but developing countries like India and China feel that this emphasis is unfair. Richer countries, meanwhile, have had the benefits of centuries of fossil fuel use, and are now demanding that growing nations stop using them with no obvious alternatives in place, he says. Mr Hu also pledged to "vigorously develop" renewable and nuclear energy.
He restated China's position that developed nations needed to do more than developing nations to fight climate change because they were historically responsible for the problem.
"Developed countries should fulfill the task of emission reduction set in the Kyoto Protocol, continue to undertake emission reduction targets and support developing countries in countering climate change," he said.

In other speeches at the summit:
US President Obama acknowledged that the US had been slow to act, but promised a "new era" of promoting clean energy and reducing carbon pollution
The new Japanese Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, pledged to reduce emissions by 25% by 2020( compared to the 1990 level Obama set as the goal for the US).
French President Nicolas Sarkozy called on leaders to meet again in mid-November ahead of the crucial Copenhagen conference.

According to the BBC's UN correspondent, Barbara Plett, discussions have stalled because rich nations are not pledging to cut enough carbon to take the world out of danger, while poorer countries are refusing to commit to binding caps, saying this would prevent them from developing their economies.
China's role is crucial, because it is both an emerging economy and a big polluter, our correspondent says.
Despite all its advances in green technology, China still gets 70% of its energy from coal - and as its economy increases, this means yet more growth in greenhouse gases, our correspondent says.

There is also concern about the US: - The second greatest polluter in the world.
President Obama has recognised climate change as a pressing issue, unlike the previous administration, the UN correspondent says.
He has already announced a target of returning to 1990 levels of greenhouse emissions by 2020, but critics say Washington is moving too slowly on legislation which does not go far enough.

If Americans were better informed of the danger the world is in, I'm sure they would pull together to cut CO2 emissions.You just have to tell them what they need to do. It's a crisis now folks. If the planet dies, we die.

Contact: - http://www.earthday.ca/ Contact: - www.globalissues.org/.../climate-change-and-global-warming