Protests have taken place outside the Russian embassy in Washington
President Obama has ordered measures designed to hurt the
Russian economy and isolate the country.US officials say Vladimir Putin has made a terrible choice, which will leave
his country in a much weaker position. But this is a critical test of Obama's leadership too, one that will
demonstrate how much clout the US has in the world.
Secretary of State John Kerry is flying to Kiev to meet leaders there, and
the US is trying to co-ordinate an international response to put pressure on
President Putin. But senior administration officials have pretty much ruled out military
intervention.
President Obama's critics are accusing him of acting too slowly and, once
again, allowing someone to trample all over his "red lines". On Friday evening he warned that there would be "costs" to Russian military
intervention in Ukraine. Hours later the troops moved in. The US now says there
are more than 6,000 Russian troops occupying Crimea. It's been suggested he has a credibility problem, and that has encouraged
Putin.Certainly the West seems ill-prepared for this escalation of the crisis, which they should have seen coming. It was obvious Putin would not give up easily. But you can over-emphasize the Obama factor. It's worth remembering that Putin went to war in Georgia when George W Bush was in the Oval office, and no one thought he was a peacenik.
Ukraine's military in Crimea has found its bases
surrounded
But Bush obviously thought better of fighting another nuclear power over a
former part of the Soviet empire.
Senior administration officials have reacted furiously to the suggestion that
Obama's past behaviour has encouraged Putin. They say the Russian leader's policy in Ukraine has failed; he has no game,
and all he has left is the use of hard power. They say the world should be
blaming him, not Obama.We are going to see a lot more moves over the coming days, with the US trying to co-ordinate an international squeeze on Russia. The first point of pressure is the June meeting of the G8 in Sochi.
The US, Canada and the UK have cancelled meetings preparing for it. The "off ramp" - the offer to help Russia back down - is a plan to send international monitors to make sure ethnic Russians are safe. This is hardly going to appeal to Putin. Crimea was a part of Russia from 1783 onwards and in the early years of the Soviet Union it was an autonomous republic within the Russian Federation. Khrushchev gifted it to Ukraine in 1954. Now Putin wants it back. To withdraw would be a failure and a humiliation for him.
The problem for Obama is that an economic squeeze takes a long time to work. Putin may not mind the diplomatic pressure at all - he seems to enjoy tweaking the noses of Western leaders. It is easy to see how the situation could get very much worse - and it is not clear how Obama would react to a deepening of the crisis.
Jeannie ,
ReplyDeleteRussia is poised to take over the most productive farmland in the Ukraine and they can cut off natural gas supplies to the EU anytime they want to apply the squeeze.
The real issue that started this was the intrusion of the IMF and the demand for a free trade deal with the EU. IOW the bankers want their pound (or ton) of flesh. That's where the $5,000,000,000 came from to support the NGOs that started the riots. Yet we pretend that the US had nothing to do with that, despite the fact that Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs orchestrated the affair.
Once again we are caught meddling in another country's internal affairs on behalf of the bankers.
What I find astounding is how many people seem to really want our President to fail in his mission to be effective somehow in dealing with the Russians. Is the hatred for president Obama 'SO' great that there are those who want Putin and the Russians to triumph here??? Methinks, yes; VERY sad.
Obama is making some good steps here, and is co-ordinating with the other great economic powers to make it all stick...except for the Chinese, of course. But the USA, the Europeans, and maybe even others (Brazil, Mexico, etc) together will be able to, over some time, put a work=ld of hurt on the Russians for this mess...which seems about right.
No military action is necessary, or even right...the ruble vaporizing and the Russian stock market and economy turned into a Third world mess will be efficient to do the job that a million men army could never do.
The sanctions discussed is a good start. They should all be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, Russia should be immediately kicked out of both the G8 and the WTO and an immediate ban on the sale of high technology items, including replacement parts for their oil & gas fields, should be imposed.
But if the west is serious about keeping Putin from moving into eastern Ukraine, there can be no substitute for the deployment of overwhelming NATO air power. In the event of a Russian move into eastern Ukraine, Ukraine's armed forces would be a much tougher nut to crack than Georgia's were. Plus Ukraine will be able to deploy a million armed reservists determined to defend their country.
Adding NATO air power to the mix would convince Putin that there's no way he could possibly succeed. American F-22 fighters would sweep the skies clean and then Apahce attack helicopters and A-10s would turn Russia's armored columns into mincemeat.
Putin knows this and would not dare risk an invasion if NATO air power were staring him in the face. All that's needed is the will to deploy those assets.
Just my humble opinion
Mr Obama is taking all the right steps so far. You are so right about that, Humble. Break down the economy...and you break the back of the country.
ReplyDeleteSelling natural gas to Europe represents one fifth of Russia's total income, some $100bn per annum. They can ill afford to lose that, but the EU is considering cutting off the supply and getting their gas from the US.
Obama has frozen all Russian assets in the US, which represents a powerful lot of money and is rejecting all Russian Visas. The sanctions will work when the international community comes together and applies pressure but it will take time.
Meanwhile the biggest fear is that a war will begin accidentally at some military check point or barricade.
NATO's Awacs are flying over Crimea doing reconnaissance right now and keeping NATO apprised of what is happening. They are also an implied warning.
Mr Kerry has recommended that Russia be expelled from the G8 which is quite an elite club for powerful countries. Many countries are considering boycotting the G8 Summit in Sochi.
All these things are a slap in the chops of Mr Putin. There is no way he can gracefully withdraw now without losing face. So he is going to hang in there as long as he can and the place will become a pressure cooker.
On March 16th Crimea will have a referendum to decide if they want to separate and re-unite with Russia.
This is a crucial test for Mr Obama. He has to hang tough now or lose any credibility he has left in the world. History will not remember him kindly if he fails.
Thankyou very much for the comment Humble.