Catastrophic Landfall Expected in Mexico Friday; Patricia Becomes Strongest Hurricane Ever Recorded

A potentially catastrophic landfall is expected Friday evening as a very powerful and dangerous Hurricane Patricia moves towards Mexico's Pacific coast. Hurricane Patricia became the most powerful tropical cyclone ever measured in the Western Hemisphere on Friday morning as its maximum sustained winds reached an unprecedented 200 mph (320 kph).
The hurricane is forecast to make landfall in the Mexican state of Jalisco Friday evening as a catastrophic
Category 5 hurricane capable of causing widespread destruction. Residents and authorities in Mexico are rushing to prepare for what will likely be the strongest hurricane to ever make landfall on that country's Pacific coastline.
At 1 p.m. CDT, the eye of Hurricane Patricia was about 85 miles (135 kilometers) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and was moving north at 10 mph (16 kph).
In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds, Hurricane Patricia now holds the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma almost exactly 10 years ago. At the 1 p.m. CDT advisory the minimum central pressure was lowered to 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).

Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early Friday. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. 

Sustained Wind Forecast

This map shows areas with at least a 50 percent chance of experiencing sustained winds of at least 39 mph (orange), 58 mph (red) or 74 mph (purple) within the next five days.
Patricia is forecast to remain a Category 5 hurricane at landfall, making it capable of causing catastrophic wind damage.

The good news is that Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the center, about 15 miles across. Otherwise, hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. Exceptionally Dangerous Situation in Mexico

The eye of Patricia is expected to move onshore either late Friday afternoon or Friday evening in the Mexican state of Jalisco, which includes the popular coastal resort city of Puerto Vallarta as well as the inland metropolis of Guadalajara, Mexico's second-largest city.

The adjoining states of Colima and Nayarit will also feel the effects of Hurricane Patricia, which in addition to catastrophic winds will also bring a formidable flood threat. Depending on the exact track of Patricia's eye, the resort city of Manzanillo may experience destructive winds, and is very likely to see flooding rainfall, dangerous storm surge and large, battering ocean waves breaking onshore.

A hurricane warning includes the Pacific coast of Mexico from San Blas to Punta San Telmo.....This warning includes the major coastal resort cities of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo....A hurricane watch is in effect east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas....,.as well as north of San Blas to El Roblito.
A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within 48 hours. A watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area.
Tropical storm conditions are possible early Friday in the warning areas, and hurricane force winds are expected to reach the warning area Friday afternoon or evening.

Only one Category 5 hurricane has ever been known to make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast. That hurricane followed a path similar to that of Hurricane Patricia and struck near Puerto Vallarta in late October 1959, causing some 1,800 deaths.

Forecast Track

The red swath indicates the area through which the center of Hurricane Patricia is most likely to travel. Dangerous impacts may occur even outside the red area.

Patricia is expected to dump 8 to 12 inches (200 to 300 millimeters) of rain over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Localized amounts as high as 20 inches (500 millimeters) are possible.

Rainfall Forecast

A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the center of Patricia makes landfall. In addition, Mexico's national water commission, CONAGUA, warned Thursday that waves of up to 12 meters (39 feet) may crash onto beaches near the landfall point.

Once this system moves inland, mid-level moisture and energy from it may get pulled into the south-central U.S. This may add more fuel to a heavy rain and flooding threat in Texas and nearby states this weekend.

Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin's previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997.
While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is by far the strongest hurricane in any basin where the term "hurricane" applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

Some 400,000 people live in vulnerable areas, according to Mexico's National Disaster Fund.The hurricane, which will bring torrential rain, could trigger flash floods and mudslides, the US centre said. It also warned of potential flooding from the sea and destructive waves.
The hurricane's winds are strong enough "to get a plane in the air and keep it flying".According to forecasters, Patricia will make landfall in the western state of Jalisco, home to the resort town of Puerto Vallarta, which could lie directly in its path.

Police patrols in the resort urged people to leave the shorefront for safer areas at least three blocks inland, while loudspeakers ordered hotel residents to evacuate.
Few people were seen going to official shelters, designed to accommodate 259,000 people, though there were queues at the local bus station.
The town's airport, along with two others in the path of the storm, were closed.
Shop owners in Manzanillo, a major port in neighbouring Colima state, have been boarding up windows. Residents have also stocked up on food and other supplies.

Some rural areas are prone to landslides and flooding. The government has warned that ash from the nearby Colima volcano, which has become increasingly active this year, could combine with heavy rainfall to trigger huge mudflows.
Mexico has to deal with tropical storms arriving from both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans at this time of year.

Some of the most powerful storms in recent years

*October 1979: Typhoon Tip - largest and most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded with wind speeds of 305km/h (190mph), killed 99 people in its path across the Pacific, mostly in Japan
*August 1980: Hurricane Allen - strongest Atlantic hurricane by wind speed, with sustained winds of 305km/h, caused nearly 300 deaths in Haiti and severe damage in the US state of Texas
*April 1991: Bangladesh cyclone known as 02B - at least 138,000 died and up to 10 million made homeless after a 6m storm surge
*October 1991: Odisha or Paradip cyclone - the strongest ever recorded in the northern Indian Ocean, killed about 10,000 people, mostly in India
*August 2005: Hurricane Katrina - killed at least 1,836 people after striking US states of Louisiana and Mississippi and was the costliest storm in history, causing $81.2bn in damage (with wind speeds of 280km/h)
*October 2005: Hurricane Wilma - most intense tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin with wind speeds of 295km/h, killing 87 people on its path through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
*November 2013: Typhoon Haiyan - the strongest storm recorded at landfall, with one-minute sustained wind speeds of 315km/h, it devastated parts of the Philippines, killing at least 6,300 people