Elon Musk and his Space-X Falcon
The Falcon
Elon with a model of his Falcon
Space pioneer Elon Musk hopes to put his name in the history books once again next week, with the planned launch and recovery of the first commercially-operated spacecraft from orbit. But to reach this point, his closely-held company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., already has managed to overcome hurdles never before encountered by the aerospace industry. And federal documents released on Friday underscore the regulation complexities and huge technical risks confronting the pioneering effort.
In June, SpaceX, as the company is known, launched its 18-story Falcon 9 rocket and successfully flew it for more than nine minutes. It was the first privately funded U.S. rocket launch in decades. However, this week's scheduled mission to launch and return an unmanned, reusable Dragon capsule from low-earth orbit, anticipated to last for hours, poses many more challenges. Placing the vehicle into a such an orbit at speeds exceeding 17,000 miles per hour, then maneuvering through a fiery reentry and splashdown in the Pacific Ocean will require a flawless trajectory, a reliable heat shield and finally, perfect operation of the redundant parachutes, according to space experts.
Elon Musk has invested more than $100 million in the venture. Based on a ground test completed Saturday, SpaceX said blastoff could occur as early as Tuesday. In an October interview, Mr. Musk said "the likelihood of us getting everything right "may be no more than 50% on the first try. Considering the difficulties of both the launch and the reentry, he said, in the end "the chance of mission success may be less than that."
In addition to the stakes for SpaceX, the flight will amount to a unique public test of President Barack Obama's controversial effort to use NASA to fund and nurture a variety of such commercial spacecraft.
The policy continues to face opposition from many lawmakers, established aerospace contractors and even some Air Force officials worried about relying too heavily on untested private rockets and spacecraft to replace the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's retiring fleet of space shuttles. But a successful reentry would propel Mr. Musk, a former Internet entrepreneur who has invested more than $100 million of his personal fortune in the scrappy startup, further into the lead for such ventures.
On Friday, the Federal Aviation Administration issued a waiver for the projected risks of the flight, which is responsible for protecting residents and buildings along the flight path. The FAA eventually determined that in the event of a catastrophic failure or decision to destroy either the rocket or the capsule, the likely combined risk of casualties from debris would meet all legal safety requirements. The agency initially computed the total risk to be greater than allowed by law, prompting SpaceX to seek to reassure FAA officials. According to SpaceX, built-in safeguards include automatic features designed to ensure that the capsule will land safely or burn up completely in the atmosphere if critical safety components such as heat shields, thrusters and navigation systems malfunction. Ground controllers will be able to check the status of the capsule and, if necessary, abort the return.
In its formal decision, the FAA said the capsule's "risk mitigation measures" include extra onboard propellant to steer clear of populated areas and three separate parachutes, although only one parachute "is necessary for a low impact landing." Over the weekend, a spokeswoman said that "as the first company in history to receive a license to reenter a spacecraft from orbit," SpaceX is "focused on making dramatic advances in the reliability and safety of space transportation." She said "that puts us in the position of being the test case for regulations written years ago."
SpaceX plans to use an unmanned Dragon capsule on top of the same type of rocket, featuring nine separate liquid oxygen and kerosene-burning engines, to start delivering cargo to the international space station in the next few years. The company has scheduled two more demonstration flights before a $1.6-billion NASA contract is slated to kick in to supply the station with cargo. By relying on and adding to the advanced technology installed in the Dragon capsule, the company eventually also hopes to transport astronauts to the station and later, perhaps deeper into space. Congress, however, is poised to substantially scale back White House proposals to fund manned commercial-space projects.
NASA has awarded other commercial cargo-delivery or spacecraft-development contracts, but SpaceX appears to be the farthest along in devising ways to build and fly civilian space vehicles for the government.
But large portions of NASA's bureaucracy, along with many established NASA contractors, continue to balk at relying largely on SpaceX hardware or other commercial-space ventures to access the space station. It will take SpaceX a number of years, and perhaps more than $1 billion, to develop safety features allowing the Dragon to carry at least four astronauts into orbit. Without robust federal funding, Mr. Musk's company is likely to face major difficulties in developing and testing those safeguards.
Good luck Mr Musk I'd love to take a ride on your Falcon.
