Will You Be “Dashing Through the Snow” This Christmas?

If you’re dreaming of waking up to snow on Christmas Day, or snow at all during the holidays, you might need to rely on an app to make that happen instead of waiting for Mother Nature to do the work. Yes, there is an app for that too.2011 has been a year of strange, extreme weather. From the powerful blizzards that started things off to the flooding and droughts of the spring and summer, Mother Nature has definitely unleashed her fury this year.

It would be nice to end things off with a White Christmas. Unfortunately, according to long-range forecasts, that doesn’t appear to be in the cards for most of North America this year.  Most of the United States, and even much of Canada, has a very slim chance of seeing snow on Christmas day during any given year in these times of gobal warming. But, still, every year we dream of that most emblematic of weather events, a white Christmas. Canadians are more likely to wake up instead to the dreary brown reality wrought by climate change, Environment Canada said Monday. The chances of seeing at least two centimetres of snow on the ground on Dec. 25 have been decreasing steadily over the past several decades as the effects of global warming take hold in cities from coast to coast, the agency said.

Climatologist David Phillips analyzed snowfall figures across the country from 1964 to 2009 and tracking averages, he began to see a picture.  "I had this argument with old-timers years ago. They'd say, 'We don't think the winters are what they used to be," and I'd say, 'Nonsense.' But they've been right." Average snow levels show a marked decrease in the likelihood of a winter wonderland on Christmas Day in nearly all regions of Canada.

In Edmonton, Saskatoon and Quebec City, where a white Christmas was all but a certainty between 1964 and 1982, the probability of a snowbound holiday has fallen sharply. Quebec City's chances have slipped to 95 per cent, Saskatoon's to 89 per cent and Edmonton to 79 per cent. The steepest drop, however, was in Sarnia, Ont., where the odds of a white Christmas, once three in four, are now less than one in three. Some northern cities, such as Kenora, Ont., Goose Bay, N.L. and Iqaluit, are still assured of a white Christmas, but remain susceptible to the rising temperatures that are causing problems in other, more southern locales.

Canadian winters are one of the best places to observe the impact of global warming. Average temperatures have increased nearly three degrees over the last 64 years. That's what's to blame for the diminished snowfall. The numbers represent a serious problem. The likelihood, or not, of a "white Christmas,"  is based on Environment Canada data accumulated over a 55-year period.

Canada's cultural traditions, which are largely grounded in winter symbols and sports, would be threatened by a long-term reduction in snowfall — to say nothing of the impact on the tourism industry. There's also a big risk to agriculture and municipal water supply. For some areas that rely on snow pack for their water, less precipitation in winter means water shortage in summer."

Also Monday, Environment Minister Peter Kent confirmed what had long been suspected: Canada is pulling out of the Kyoto Protocol, the binding climate treaty forged in the late 1990s to which the country was a signatory. Kent made the announcement one day after marathon climate talks wrapped up in the South African port city of Durban, where nearly 200 countries took key steps towards a new climate treaty by 2015 to replace Kyoto, which expires at the end of next year.

Of course, Canada will eventually be walloped by the white stuff this winter. We're just going to get a reprieve through the holiday season. The impact of global warming will likely be more dramatic in the coming years as temperatures continue to rise and Christmas may be changed forever.