Half the world's population could face a climate-induced food crisis by 2100, a new report by US scientists warns. Rapid warming is likely to reduce crop yields in the tropics and subtropics, according to Prof David Battisti of the University of Washington, Seattle. The most extreme summers of the last century will become the norm, he calculates, using 23 climate models. We must urgently create crops tolerant to heat and drought if we are to adapt in time, he writes in Science journal. We're taking the worst of what we've seen historically and saying that in the future it is going to be a lot worse, unless there is some kind of adaptation
"The stresses on global food production from temperature alone are going to be huge," said Mr Battisti, a professor of atmospheric sciences. "And that doesn't take into account water supplies stressed by the higher temperatures."
He collaborated with Professor Rosamond Naylor, director of Stanford University's Program on Food Security and the Environment, to examine the impact of climate change on the world's food security.
The duo combined direct observations with projections from 23 global climate models that contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 2007 global assessment. They calculate there is greater than 90% probability that by 2100, the average growing-season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics will be higher than any temperatures recorded there to date.
"We are taking the worst of what we've seen historically and saying that in the future it is going to be a lot worse unless there is some kind of adaptation," said Professor Naylor.
We do have long enough to adjust these kind of temperature rises... But it requires a huge effort and it requires us to start now
"This is a compelling reason for us to invest in adaptation, because it is clear that this is the direction we are going in terms of temperature and it will take decades to develop new food crop varieties that can better withstand a warmer climate."
In the tropics, the higher temperatures could be expected to cut yields of the primary food crops, maize and rice, by 20-40%, the researchers said. Rising temperatures also are likely to reduce soil moisture, cutting yields even further. Currently three billion people live in the tropics and subtropics, and their number is expected nearly to double by the end of the century.
"You are talking about hundreds of millions of additional people looking for food because they won't be able to find it where they find it now," said Professor Battisti. Crop failures would not be limited to the tropics, the scientists concluded.
As an example, they cite record temperatures that struck Western Europe in June, July and August of 2003, killing an estimated 52,000 people. In France and Italy, the heatwave cut wheat yields and fodder production by one-third. Scientists say such temperatures could be normal for France by 2100.
"I think what startled me the most is that when we looked at our historic examples there were ways to address the problem within a given year. People could always turn somewhere else to find food," Professor Naylor said. "But in the future there's not going to be any place to turn unless we rethink our food supplies."
In red areas, average temperatures during the summer growing season are 90-100% likely to exceed the hottest summer on record (1900-2006). Orange 70-90% likelihood; yellow 50-70%; green 10-50%; white 0-10%.
"You can let it happen and painfully adapt, or you can plan for it," said Professor Battisti. "You could also mitigate it and not let it happen in the first place, but we're not doing a very good job of that."
"This is a very important report," said Dr Geoff Hawtin, director general of the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and a former executive secretary of the Global Crop Diversity Trust.
"What worries me is the uncertainty about the speed at which the growing season temperatures will rise.
"We do have long enough to adjust to these kinds of temperature increases - they are well within our capabilities. But it requires a huge effort - much bigger than we are making currently - and it requires us to start now," he told BBC News.
"We don't know where the tipping points are - they could come quite quickly."
Along with some other experts, Dr Hawtin believes that maintaining the maximum level of genetic diversity in crops and seedbanks is a good insurance policy, providing options for developing future strains.
"We are not doing enough," he said. "We've done a fairly good job on cereal crops, but we have a long way to go on minor crops that could turn out to be of major importance in the future. "We need to understand more about the physiology of drought and heat resistance in plants - maize, beans, legumes, sorghum, millet - anything which grows in an environment subject to drought. We need to take genes for heat tolerance, for example, and put them together in crops. And we have to start now."
As the summers get hotter, said Dr Hawtin: "We can't just move all our crops north (or south) because a lot of crops are photosensitive. Flowering is triggered by day length - so you would run into all sorts of problems if you tried that.
"And even if Russia and Canada turn out to be the world's bread baskets, the cost of transporting the food to Africa will be too much. People in these areas can't afford food now."
There are many large food and chemical companies working on heat and drought resistant crops presently and the Monsanto company, for example, may have a hardy form of corn ready as early as 2012. Everyone needs to get on this bandwagon.We don't know how much time we have left and most people are still not aware of the chrisis we face. Or, perhaps they are in denial.
Check out our new blog 'STARHOOKS' http://starhooks.blogspot.com/
I agree we need to create hardy crops like yesterday to feed the people of the world.We need to put the right people in charge.
ReplyDeleteSo many people have good intentions as the ones that volunteered their sevices and money to the people in Haiti and it didn't funnel down to them.
In the tropical hub of Africa the usual crops are already failing because if the increased heat and drought. It wiil continue to heat up every year. There is no stopping it now. Crops will fail all over the world because they can't stand the new high temperatures.
ReplyDeleteHi Cutie
ReplyDeletePlease excuse me for a moment. Nana is calling. I think she needs help.
ReplyDeleteAfrica has been a hungry zone for some time now...I hope when we help the less fortunate they get someone like that Jean guy thatwant to run for pres. of Haiti.
ReplyDeleteHow is Nana ? I bet she has been her little sweet self today.
ReplyDeleteWhat's Brian up to ? I bet he's still thinking about his day at the lake and smiling.
Everything here is rolling along and I'm getting a kick out of Dad, every time he pass Gil,Dad says I'm the daddy.
Always see about Nana/Brian, they comes first, we can always gossip.
ReplyDeleteOkay I'm back.
ReplyDeleteWyclef Jean's motives are suspect. He owes millions in back taxes to the US and His Haiti charity has been using the money for other things besides helping the people.
The agricultral scientists all over the world have to work on this now. We only have about ten years to develop crops that will grow in intense heat.
ReplyDeleteIf we don't address this now, in a few years the only places food will grow is Canada and Russia.
ReplyDeleteYou can tell the crops are not as plentiful as once were.
ReplyDeleteMo matter how hard the good people try, there's always the one like that Jean guy.
I know the world gave enoug money to support the hosiptal I posted about and it was brand new.
It makes you scared to give.
Nana is mean and spiteful and gets her jollies by making people miserable. In other words she's fine.
ReplyDeleteWas Nana okay???
ReplyDeleteOh shit...we have started again.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, I wonder do people realize it's Global Warming.
ReplyDeleteI hope aunt Mae is resting comfortably and feels much better.
ReplyDeleteThat's a nice touch you put on this post to visit SH's.
ReplyDeleteI asked some did they visit our new blog and they said yes.
I think we are doing good, we will be there 2 months on August 21.
There will always be a few people who refuse to believe in global warming even though the land around them toasts to a crisp or becomes flooded.
ReplyDeleteMore people are being intelligent about it now. They realize unless we all give up our cars and stop industry and stop using chemicals and fossil fuels completely there is no hope of slowing global warming.
ReplyDeleteAunt Mae is resting and ready to go visiting, everyone is coming to see her, she wants Dan/Sally to sneak her a little Vodka. Sis told them she can't have any right now because of all her meds.
ReplyDeleteBut this is a dreary subject. Tell me where the greatest sex you ever had took place....car?...hotel?....closet?
ReplyDeleteWe won't stay on as late tonight, the twins are coming over for a sleepove tomorrow and you want to at your best.
ReplyDeleteI can't stand the heat. If it gets much hotter I am considering shooting myself.
ReplyDeleteThat's good about aunt Mae.I know she is happy where she is.I hope everyone is setted down. How is Leon doing?
The closet where I made Gilly, shit I think that fool had me standing on my head.
ReplyDeleteHow about you???
I can't pick the twins up until Seven tomorrow evening. They are going to dinner with Bio first...Blechh!
ReplyDeleteI asked Jill/Sha where was Dad and they said poppa was in daddy's study writing his dear lady and I asked where was Gilly and they said he was writing poppa dear lady.
ReplyDeleteI think maybe at this little motel we used to go to before we got married.He did something that made me howl.
ReplyDeleteLeon is very happy, he and Lenny is at the hotel in Dad's suite.
ReplyDeleteHe's glad his daughter is coming to stay. I think he realize he made a mistake and wants to get back with her mama.
I am glad they are only going to lunch with BIO and coming to you .
ReplyDeleteOh you naughty girl,but I like it, the naughtier the better...HA !
ReplyDeleteDad writes a lot like you. All in the family,I guess.
ReplyDeleteI hope he is okay now.
That Julia Roberts movie looks cute,just saw the trailer on tv. It is definitely a chick flick but cute anyway.
ReplyDeleteI don't know what other new movies are any good.
I will have to research the new trailers.
ReplyDeleteWhy does Jay Leno always have Peewee Herman on his show?
I think Dad/Nan are trying to teach me to write and spell,,,they are trying their best, Nan went back and got some of my early work and said they had taught me something.
ReplyDeletePeewee likes to play with his dangle and maybe when the show is over Jay lets him play with his.[giggles]
ReplyDeleteGirl you are a riot...but I love you anyway.
I wouldn 't take instruction from Dad if I were you. He makes a lot of spelling mistakes.
ReplyDeleteI heard Peewee was caught in Flordia in an XXX rated movie house playing with his dangle, have you heard that one ???
ReplyDeleteThey say on TV that 'Scott Pilgrim vs the World'is a pretty good movie. Never heard of it.
ReplyDeleteWonder how Lohan is doing.
Think I'll have my tea now. I really enjoy a tea or coffee when I am chatting.
ReplyDeleteThere are not many good movies any more we watch a lot of videos.
ReplyDeleteRight now I'm watching chillers they are having monster week.and I like horror pictures, Thursday they will have shankes on a plane with Samuel Jackson
I'm watching Anna Kendrick on Jay. She is not beautiful but I like her face. She probably could handle character parts or comedy very well.
ReplyDeleteI heard about Peewee dingling his dangle.It ruined his career in children's shows.
ReplyDeleteDid they think he was celibate?Of course a guy is going to spank his monkey now and then.So he likes porn, so what? That doesn't make him a bad person.
I bet he is careful now.
I know Dad wrote you a note on SH's ...I went over to read it and it looks okay to me, I will have to read his other posts to see his mistakes, I know he has arthritis in his hands.I will tell him to watch his spelling so you will understand what he's saying better.
ReplyDeleteI know I can't spell worth a shit.
Peewee always looked kind of spooky to me.
ReplyDeleteI will be glad when the new season starts and they don't have much to offer.
So I will look at AMC they always have some oldies but goodies.
What have you got plan for the twins.
ReplyDeleteDon't tell him I said he makes mistakes. He won't want to talk to me any more.
ReplyDeleteI don't spend my time looking for errors.
You won't be bother with Dad for awhile after this week ...he's going to Nevada to get his business there put in order, I think he's going to Napa Valley and Carson City.
ReplyDeleteI didn't see any on the last one he wrote you today on SH's, Dad is a self made mad and he didn't finish school and I love him whether he can spell or not.
ReplyDeleteIt's very odd. In some of his notes there are no spelling or grammatical errors and in some notes there are. Oh well, I don't want to make him self conscious about it or it will ruin our budding friendship. I don't get the opportunity to get out and make many friends any more.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny how your life changes.
Partying and social life seemed so important a few years ago.
I have never heard of Scott Pilgrim or the movie.
ReplyDeleteThe last one on SH's he wrote today is real long, that's the only one I read because he wasn't writing them to me.
ReplyDeleteOh well, Dad is 82 years old and he deserves to nmake a few mistakes.
ReplyDeleteYou want me to tell him to make his notes a little shorter???
'The Last Exorcism' seems like a good scary movie. I think it has just come out. I'll give it a look.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry...I don't mean to get so defensive about Dad, it's just I asked him to write a note about himself and I guess he just got carried away.
ReplyDeleteI apologize and won't ask anyone else.
I like the long notes from all of you. They are a real pleasure to read.I get to share a moment of your lives. Nan left me quite a long and exciting version of the events of a few days ago.I hope she got my reply.I could not believe the gall of Betts. She has the sense and sensibility of a brick.
ReplyDeleteThe Last Exocism movie was pretty good but not as good as the one with Linda Blair...
ReplyDeleteThey just don't make good movies anymore just a lot of bed-hopping from man to man.
Did you see Broke Back Mountain ??
ReplyDeleteNow that movie will make you want to puke.
If you think I care about a few spelling errors, you are mistaken.I could care less and I prefer long notes to short ones.
ReplyDeleteHow did we come down this road?
I enjoy conversing with dad and you and Nan tremendously.It is a pleasure.
Nan always come here now and write her notes and yes she got yours and made her a copy.
ReplyDeleteNan says she comes on to speak to you but she don't comment to much because she don't want to mess up our blog like whan we was having trouble before.
When I found out about the content of Broke Back Mountain I did not want to see it and still haven't.
ReplyDeleteIf I want to see sex I would rather see the hetrosexual kind.
You said Dad made a lot of errors and I just wanted to know if you still wanted him to write you.
ReplyDeleteI feel guilty because i was the one that asked him to write ever so often.
I'm not going to tell him, it would hurt his feeling.
I come here to have fun and talk about happy things.
ReplyDeleteSo lets talk about something worthwhile.
If Nan is on Sis's computer I don't see how she could mess us up.
ReplyDeleteIt was when you were on one computer in your house and she was on the other that I wondered if it was interfering with the signal. I don't know much about electronics, I was only speculating.
I'm with you there girl, we went to the see the movie and some people was coming out talking and we asked was it any good and they told us what it was about,so we left before buying tickets.
ReplyDeleteI told Nan that's what it was, I was staying at Sis and she had my lappy downstairs....don't worry she okay. But when she says hello she's at home on Sis PC.
ReplyDeleteBut she comes here to put things in draft for you.
I have logged in down at Sis, I had to use my E-mail and password and got right in.
Have you made any plans for the twins, you are really going to have fun and that will be so good for Nana...Nana always loves it when the twins come.
ReplyDeleteIt was just odd that there were no spelling mistakes in most of his notes but just in a few. I don't give a fuck about mistakes. I would like him to talk to me but only if he wants to and only if he has fun with it.
ReplyDeleteAs for the twins,we are going to have a monopoly marathon, watch movies, eat junk food and tell knock knock jokes.
Dad likes talking to you and maybe his hands were swollen ..I don't know , I was just trying to explain...next time I will keep my pie hole shut.
ReplyDelete{giggles}
I have to have them back at home by four-thirty the next day for karate. They go three times a week when they can.They are so involved with their black belt club.
ReplyDeleteThey are starting to teach others.I'm very proud of their progress.It teaches them such a good philosophy about being good and helping people.
The twins are going to have a great time.
ReplyDeleteYou will have your hands full tomorrow, so you will have to wait until Thursday to tell me how much fun you had.
I hope the twins get so involved with the karate club it will take up all their time from you know who and I think it will, I'll take a drink to that.
ReplyDeleteI heard Dad in the kitchen, I have some fruit cut up.
ReplyDeleteBrian believes that in time the boys will get so involved with friends and activities they will cut back on the time spent with Bio
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about SH's stats.
ReplyDeleteYou and Brian are in agreement there.I hope you both are right. I don't think Bio is good for them.He doesn't always tell them the truth either. That's bad for them.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Brian 100% ...I hope that time is close at hand..they know "P" is daddy.
ReplyDeleteThe quicker the better.
I have always wishedthat he would get a sudden and permanent urge to go back to Ireland.
ReplyDeleteHis cousin is a very well known country singer in Canada.
Girl we better stop reading each other minds.
ReplyDeleteNo lying to your child is not good and teaches them the wrong thing.
That's the reason I try to keep my cool, I don't want my girls to think it alright to beat upon someone because they make you mad.
I think she is fairly well known in the US too. But certainly not a super star, at least not yet.
ReplyDeletei guess you were right last night...maybe I'm getting old and wimpy.[giggles]
ReplyDeleteThat don't say shit for him...he's still a no good fart-ass no good bastard...and that's being kind to his fucking ass...HA !
ReplyDeleteWell if you're wimpy, I like you that way. I just think you are a responsible mom. You weren't much older than Jill when you lost your mom so suddenly. I think you want to fill her life with all the love and happiness wonderful mommy things you missed.
ReplyDeleteHis cousin thinks the world of him.Thinks he is 'Mr Cool'. To a lot of people he is pretty cool .
ReplyDeleteCraig has bare feet. Why?
ReplyDeleteI better let you get some rest. You'll blame me if you're tired and cranky tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI look at my little girl and I shower all the love I can on her because I don't know how long I will be with her.
ReplyDeleteI am learning to control my temper, it's hard but I manage to keep it in check since Gil is not going to be baling out on me taking care of everyone else when I need him.
Did you know I was the baby child in the family...Nan is 2 years older than I am.
She don't know the real man...he's just another ass hole.
ReplyDeleteI know you will be enjoying the twins tomorrow and they will be up late...and you may not be online but have a joyful time with them.
I know you are the youngest. That was the saddest thing about losing your mom. The others were old enough to handle it better.
ReplyDeleteI will say goodnight and see you Thursday night same time and same place...
ReplyDeleteEnjoy sweetis.
GOODNITE...HUGS & KISSES...PIC
Kiss the Rock.
Jill won't ever know that soul deep sadness. You're going to be around to hold your grand-babies.
ReplyDeleteI hope they all inherit your temper and voodoo ways and drive you crazy.
ReplyDeleteI am younger than Sis kids too.
ReplyDeletei will leave you a note somewhere tomorrow, but you enjoy the twins.
ReplyDeleteGoodnight Wimpy, Have a peaceful night and don't worry about anything. Life is beautiful. See you around. luv, your friend and partner...PIC
ReplyDeleteYou are a very Mean 'GENIE' to wish that on me but I love you anyway...
ReplyDeleteI like eing 'WIMPY' people don't expect so much from you.
ReplyDeletehaving a meeting tomorrow and I am going to give them hell...we have to get the word out....NITE...PIC