James Pethokoukis What would a failed Trump administration look like? It certainly doesn't need to involve President Trump's impeachment and removal from office. Rather, imagine this: As the 2018 midterm elections approach, Trump's only accomplishment is starting construction on the southern border mega-wall. No ObamaCare replacement. No big tax cut. No big infrastructure plan. And millions of American voters are starting to consider that handing total power in Washington to a party led by a short-attention-span novice was a cosmically bad idea. It hardly seems like a far-fetched scenario right now. First, repealing and replacing ObamaCare, the GOP's top priority, was just dealt a hammer blow by the Congressional Budget Office. Conservative Republicans will surely focus on the CBO finding that the American Health Care Act would reduce projected debt by $300 billion and cut taxes by $900 billion over a decade. But the more relevant numbers to many Americans will be the 14 million people losing health insurance coverage next year and the 20 percent rise in insurance premiums if the bill becomes law. Republicans may quibble about details and degree, but the CBO forecast is almost certainly correct directionally. Priority two doesn't look a whole lot healthier. The GOP plan to deeply cut tax rates depends on the blueprint's controversial and deeply confusing border-adjustment provision, where imports would be taxed but exports wouldn't. Not surprisingly, the plan has split GOP business backers depending on whether they export goods (like Boeing) or import them (like Walmart). Dropping this provision — as seems highly probable — would blow a trillion-dollar revenue hole in a plan already counting on aggressive growth forecasts to avoid hemorrhaging red ink. And while it's true that things typically look darkest before the dawn when trying to pass major legislation, the AHCA and the GOP's tax plan both look to be in serious trouble. Now, to be positive, they are also more or less fixable — at least on paper. Or at least vastly improvable. The health-care plan could be tweaked to help the poor and old by spending more on Medicaid and tax credits for purchasing private insurance. And the penalty for skipping coverage could be made harsher so more healthy people sign up and create stronger risk pools. (My AEI colleagues Jim Capretta and Joe Antos have already assembled a fix.) The tax plan could also be modified for the better. One option would be to dump the current plan and go with a ready-made alternative like the one proposed in 2014 by former GOP Ways and Means chairman Dave Camp. That proposal would cut personal and business taxes but be revenue neutral by cutting or crimping various tax breaks. Or Republicans could keep their current plan and just not cut rates so deeply, especially for wealthier Americans. Trust me, they'll be fine. Of course, the catch with all those possible changes to the health and tax plans is that while they might make them more palatable and passable to more moderate GOPers, particularly in the Senate, they would also make them less so to conservatives. Then there's the president himself, who remains a cipher on the health and tax plans he would prefer and be willing to spend political capital on. Republicans don't just need Trump to sign what they send him. They will at some point need him to show leadership on this legislation and then fight hard for it.
MICHAEL BRENDAN DOUGHERTY Why the Republicans' civil war is a sign of political strength And time is wasting away. It's always easier to try and do big things in the first year or so of a new presidential term. The 1981 Reagan tax cuts were passed and signed in August 1981. ObamaCare in March of 2010. But it's not just the electoral clock making time of the essence for the GOP. Many congressional Republicans remain worried the Trump administration will eventually implode, and they want to make sure they get the big things done ASAP. Yet with that haste has come sweeping reform legislation that's not fully cooked, risking failure for reform and the Trump presidency itself.
March 12th 2017 Senator John McCain has said that President Trump should provide proof that former President Obama wiretapped his phones or he should retract the claim, reports The Hill. During an appearance on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday, McCain said: "President Trump has to provide the American people—not just the intelligence committee, but the American people—with evidence that his predecessor, former president of the Unites States was guilty of breaking the law. Because our Director of National Intelligence, General Clapper, testified that there was absolutely no truth to that allegation." McCain added, "I think the president has one of two choices: Either retract or to provide the information that the American people deserve because if his predecessor violated the law -President Obama violated the law-we've got a serious issue here, to say the least." He then suggested that Trump ask the top intelligence officials about the matter because, according to McCain, "...they certainly should know whether the former president of the United States was wiretapping Trump Tower." The discussion was prompted by a series of controversial tweets Trump posted on March 4, the first of which read, "Terrible! Just found out that Obama had my 'wires tapped' in Trump Tower just before the victory. Nothing found. This is McCarthyism!" Obama has denied any such activity, with his spokesman Kevin Lewis saying in a statement, "...neither President Obama nor any White House official ever ordered surveillance on any U.S. citizen. Any suggestion otherwise is simply false."
Budding feud is new distraction in a Trump presidency that has been struggling to enact its agenda
The rapport between Barack Obama and Donald Trump is unraveling, with the president convinced that Mr. Obama is undermining his nascent administration and the former president furious over Trump tweets accusing him of illegal wiretapping, people close to the two men said.
The budding feud between two men who share the unique bond of membership in the commander-in-chiefs’ club is a fresh red herring in a Trump presidency that has been struggling to enact its agenda.
The rift also is distancing Mr. Trump from a former two-term president who had offered to give private advice and counsel as the onetime businessman settles into his first job in public office.
Mr. Trump clasped Mr. Obama’s shoulder and shook hands before the two parted ways and the former president boarded a helicopter outside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 20. Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama have not spoken since the inauguration, but their respective advisers have. Mr. Trump tried to call Mr. Obama to thank him for the traditional letter that one president leaves for his successor in the Oval Office. Mr. Obama was traveling at the time and the two never connected, people familiar with the matter said.
Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian, said the open friction has upended tradition, an “almost unwritten rule that you treat your predecessor with a degree of grace and decorum.”
“There are these kinds of things that have happened in the past, but nothing to the degree where a sitting president would charge his predecessor with a felony,” Mr. Brinkley said. “It creates a feeling of instability in the United States.”
In a Twitter frenzy Tuesday morning Mr Trump continued his attack on President Obama. Tweeting that Mr. Obama had ushered in a flawed health-care system, allowed dangerous prisoners to leave the Guantanamo Bay prison camp and let Russia get “stronger and stronger.” He also cited completely false statistics on these subjects.
Trump is desperately trying to turn the public's focus from the investigation into his campaign's connections to Russia. What better target than a worldwide, respected leader and diplomat who won the Nobel Prize for peace.
Mar 5th 2017 Former White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest has offered his own explanation for President Trump's controversial tweet claiming that he had been wiretapped by his predecessor. Earnest told ABC News' Martha Raddatz Sunday on 'This Week,' "We know exactly why President Trump tweeted what he tweeted. Because there is one page in the Trump White House crisis management playbook. And that is simply to tweet or say something outrageous to distract from the scandal, and the bigger the scandal, the more outrageous the tweet." He also explained that Obama could not have ordered a wiretap because, in his words, "The President of the United States does not have the authority to unilaterally order the wiretapping of an American citizen." The discussion was prompted by a series of controversial tweets Trump posted Saturday, the first of which read, "Terrible! Just found out that Obama had my 'wires tapped' in Trump Tower just before the victory. Nothing found. This is McCarthyism!" He also tweeted, "How low has President Obama gone to tapp my phones during the very sacred election process. This is Nixon/Watergate. Bad (or sick) guy!" According to ABC News, "Trump offered no proof for his claims." However, the White House has since said Trump is asking for an investigation "to determine whether executive branch investigative powers were abused in 2016." Meanwhile, Obama has denied any such activity, with his spokesman Kevin Lewis saying in a statement, "...neither President Obama nor any White House official ever ordered surveillance on any U.S. citizen. Any suggestion otherwise is simply false."
Mr. Humble sitting in for 'The Genie' Nice trunk (smiling)
Donald Trump came into office promising to change the face of American politics and transfer power "back to the people". WELL ??? Since Mr Trump has no confidence in American journalists or American polls, The BBC, the globally respected British media company is conducting it's own analysis and polls.
After four weeks in the White House, he said "incredible progress" had been made, having signed some two dozen executive actions and put his signature to several bills. He also fired his scandal-hit national security adviser and an acting attorney general, who defied his seven-nation travel ban, which later suffered an appeals court defeat. So what has President Trump achieved so far? In the weeks and months to come, we'll be tracking the progress he makes on his agenda and how it is received by the American public.
What executive actions has Trump taken?
One way President Trump is able to exercise political power is through unilateral executive orders and memoranda, which allow him to bypass the legislative process in Congress in certain policy areas.
"I don't think there's ever been a president elected who in this short period of time has done what we've done".
While it may appear that President Trump has been signing executive actions at an unprecedented rate, he has signed less than President Obama did during the same period in office.
Mr Trump has used many of these actions to deliver on some of his campaign promises, but many of his promises cannot be fulfilled by executive action alone. For example, his first executive order was designed to limit the effect of the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, but his promise of repealing and replacing it can only be enacted by Congress. How are his approval ratings? When Mr Trump took the oath of office on the 20th of January he did so with the lowest approval rating of any incoming president. He dismissed those polls as "rigged" but the strength of the opposition to him was evident when hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets the day after his inauguration. Most presidents begin their term with strong approval numbers, but President Trump has bucked that trend. While both George W Bush and Barack Obama were enjoying approval numbers in the 60s after one month in office, Mr Trump is around the 40% mark.
Mr Trump won the election with low approval numbers so it's unsurprising they're still low, but the scandal over his team's contacts with Russia and his controversial travel ban have kept them falling. Do the numbers matter? Maybe not, for now. Republicans control both the House and Senate so in theory he can pursue his legislative agenda without worrying about his ratings - as long as he keeps his Republican colleagues on side. But if his ratings stay low or fall further, expect some dissenting voices to emerge in the party as Republicans start to worry about midterm elections in 2018. For now though, there are signs that many of Mr Trump's supporters are happy with his progress, although others would hardly call it that.
How is the economy faring under Trump? When Barack Obama became president in 2009, the US was in the midst of its worst recession since the 1930s, with the economy shedding 800,000 jobs in his first month. But after a few dips later that year, the US economy saw its longest ever period of job creation. In total, 11.3 million jobs were created under President Obama. President Trump, however, described the economy as a "mess" and said he had "inherited many problems".
President Obama and the tale of US jobs:
During the campaign, Mr Trump vowed to create 25 million jobs over 10 years and become "the greatest jobs president... ever".
He also accused Mexico and China of stealing millions of jobs and vowed to "bring our jobs home". But research suggests most of the manufacturing jobs that America has shed in recent years have been lost to increased automation at factories, rather than companies moving abroad.
We'll be keeping track of the monthly jobs report to see what progress he makes and we'll also be paying close attention to the manufacturing industry.
In the short term, however, President Trump has cited the stock market as a sign that his policies are already having an effect on the economy, saying there has been a "tremendous surge of optimism in the business world".
The Dow, S&P, 500 and Nasdaq indexes all closed at record highs on 15 February in a partial sign at least that investors were encouraged by Mr Trump's planned infrastructure projects, deregulation and tax cuts. But the president will need to avoid the backlash that followed his ban on immigrants coming into the US from seven mainly Muslim countries if he wants the stock market to continue hitting new highs.
All of the three major indexes fell slightly after Mr Trump's controversial executive order caused protests at airports across the country - and Silicon Valley lashed out at the president as well.
Has Trump moved to cut illegal immigration?
Immigration was President Trump's signature issue during the election campaign and he has signed a number of executive orders designed to fulfil his promises.
One of his first orders declared that the US would build a "physical wall" or similar "impassable physical barrier" - to the delight of all of those Americans who spent 2016 chanting: "Build the wall!"
It remains to be seen how Mr Trump will pay it, although he has repeatedly insisted that the US will recoup the costs from the Mexican government, despite their leaders saying otherwise.
There is already some 650 miles of fencing along the border, but we'll monitor what progress President Trump makes in turning it into what he has called the "Great Wall".
Mr Trump used another order on border security to say 10,000 more immigration officers would be hired to track down illegal immigrants. But this will be a long process and newly appointed Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly said it was unlikely to happen "within the next couple of years".
The new president's talk of a crackdown on illegal immigrants makes it sound as if they had an easy ride under President Obama, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest the opposite is true.
Between 2009 and 2015, the Obama administration deported more than 2.5 million people - most of whom had been convicted of some form of criminal offence or were recent arrivals - leading some to label President Obama the "deporter-in-chief".
While President Trump is yet to change US immigration laws, he did sign two memos on 20 February that instructed immigration officers to take a much tougher approach towards enforcing existing measures. The new policy is so broad as to include just about every class of undocumented immigrant - more than 11 million by most estimates.
White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said Mr Trump "wanted to take the shackles off" immigration officials but insisted the move would not mean mass deportations.
The Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency has launched a series of raids across the country since Mr Trump was elected, but it's still too early to say if deportation arrests have increased.
What has been done on healthcare?
Healthcare was an early test for President Trump and the Republican Party. President Obama's Affordable Care Act helped more than 20 million previously-uninsured Americans to finally get health cover - but Mr Trump said he would act quickly to "repeal and replace" it. While the Republican-controlled Congress has started efforts to repeal what's known as Obamacare, it is still unclear whether they will try to replace it completely or just repair elements of it.
The scheme has faced several problems along the way and premium hikes in 2016 helped the Republicans frame it as a failure during the election campaign.
But a report by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office found that 18 million people could lose their insurance within a year if Congress repealed parts of it without having a new system in place.
Senior Republicans have said legislation to replace it will be unveiled in March but several recent polls have suggested that support for Obama's ACA is actually growing.
Ancient life: These clumps of iron and filaments show similarities to modern microbes
Scientists have discovered what they say could be fossils of some of the earliest living organisms on Earth. They are represented by tiny filaments, knobs and tubes in Canadian rocks dated to be up to 4.28 billion years old. That is a time not long after the planet's formation and hundreds of millions of years before what is currently accepted as evidence for the most ancient life yet found on Earth.
The researchers report their investigation in the journal Nature. As with all such claims about ancient life, the study is contentious. But the team believes it can answer any doubts. The scientists' putative microbes from Quebec are one-tenth the width of a human hair and contain significant quantities of haematite - a form of iron oxide or "rust".
Matthew Dodd, who analyzed the structures at University College London, UK, claimed the discovery would shed new light on the origins of life.
"This discovery answers the biggest questions mankind has asked itself - which are: where do we come from and why we are here?
Image caption This bright red "concretion" of iron-and silica-rich rock contains the features interpreted as microfossils
"It is very humbling to have the oldest known lifeforms in your hands and being able to look at them and analyze them," he said.
The fossil structures were encased in quartz layers in the so-called Nuvvuagittuq Supracrustal Belt (NSB). The NSB is a chunk of ancient ocean floor. It contains some of the oldest volcanic and sedimentary rocks known to science.
The team looked at sections of rock that were likely laid down in a system of hydrothermal vents - fissures on the seabed from which heated, mineral-rich waters spew up from below.
Today, such vents are known to be important habitats for microbes. And Dr Dominic Papineau, also from UCL, who discovered the fossils in Quebec, thinks this kind of setting was very probably also the cradle for lifeforms between 3.77 and 4.28 billion years ago (the upper and lower age estimates for the NSB rocks).
He described how he felt when he realized the significance of the material on which he was working: "I thought to myself 'we've got it, we've got the oldest fossils on the planet'.
"It relates to our origins. For intelligent life to evolve to a level of consciousness, to a point where it traces back its history to understand its own origin - that's inspirational."
Image caption Iron-rich tubes from the Quebec rocks provide additional evidence for life
Any claim for the earliest life on Earth attracts scepticism. That is understandable. It is often hard to prove that certain structures could not also have been produced by non-biological processes. In addition, analysis is complicated because the rocks in question have often undergone alteration. The NSB, for example, has been squeezed and heated through geological time
At present, perhaps the oldest acknowledged evidence of life on the planet is found in 3.48-billion-year-old rocks in Western Australia. This material is said to show remnants of stromatolites - mounds of sediment formed of mineral grains glued together by ancient bacteria.An even older claim for stromatolite traces was made in August last year. The team behind that finding said their fossil evidence was 3.70 billion years old.
Nonetheless, the UCL researchers and their colleagues say they have worked extremely hard to demonstrate the greater antiquity for their structures. Dr Papineau does concede though that the idea of metabolizing micro-organisms using oxygen so soon after the Earth's formation will surprise many geologists.
"They would not consider that there were organisms breathing oxygen at this time. It brings back the production of oxygen on the Earth's surface, albeit by tiny amounts, to the beginning of the sedimentary record," he said.
Prof Nicola McLoughlin from Rhodes University, South Africa ( not involved in the study) said the maximum age of the rocks had proven to be very controversial, and that the true age was more likely to be closer to the 3.77-billion-year age. Part of the interest in ancient life is in the implication it has for organisms elsewhere in the Solar System.
Thermal vents in the sea bed
"These (NTB) organisms come from a time when we believe Mars had liquid water on its surface and a similar atmosphere to Earth at that time," said Mr Dodd.
"So, if we have lifeforms originating and evolving on Earth at this time then we may very well have had life beginning on Mars."
If that is the case then, according to Dr Papineau, recent Nasa rover missions to the Martian surface may have been looking for signs of life in the wrong places. He said that the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER), Spirit and Opportunity, and the more recent Curiosity robot mission had overlooked areas that might have had rocks produced by hydrothermal vents.
"On the surface of Mars there have been missed opportunities. The MER Opportunity in 2003 found promising formations but there was no analysis. And the Spirit rover went straight past another near the Comanche outcrop in Gusev crater."
The suggestion that life had already arisen "just" a few hundred million years after the Earth had formed is intriguing in light of debates about whether life on Earth was a rare accident or whether biology is a common outcome given the right conditions.
A dinosaur that lived 160 million years ago had drumstick-shaped legs much like living birds, according to paleontologists. The feathered dinosaur also had bird-like arms similar to wings. Scientists used high-powered lasers to reveal invisible details of what the creature looked like.
The research could give insights into the origins of flight, which is thought to have evolved more than 150 million years ago. Michael Pittman of the University of Hong Kong said the study was a landmark in our understanding of the origins of birds.
"In this study, what we've done is we've used high-powered lasers to reveal unseen soft tissues preserved alongside the bones of a feathered dinosaur called Anchiornis," he said.
Studies of nine Anchiornis specimens reveal the accurate body outline of the bird-like dinosaur
The research team used laser-stimulated fluorescence imaging, a technique that reveals soft tissue details that are unseen under visible light. The method involves sweeping laser light across a specimen while taking long-exposure photos with a camera.
Wing of the dinosaur
Dr Stephen Brusatte of the University of Edinburgh, who was not connected with the research, said the study produced striking evidence of just how bird-like these dinosaurs were.
"This study uses high-powered lasers to generate the single best look at the wings and body outline of a dinosaur ever," he told the BBC News website.
"The laser images show that this non-bird dinosaur had wings that were remarkably similar to those of living birds, down to the soft tissues." Anchiornis is Greek for "almost bird".
The dinosaur lived in China during the late Jurassic Period, around the time when the first true birds are thought to have appeared. The creature had feathers and seems to have been black with white stripes and displayed a distinctive orange feather crest on the crown of its head. It is not clear whether Anchiornis could fly or glide.
The research is published in the journal Nature Communications.
